People’s Concerns With the Prediction of COVID-19 in Bangladesh: Application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

Hossain, Md. Ismail; Saleheen, Ahmed Abdus Saleh; Haq, Iqramul; Zinnia, Maliha Afroj; Hasan, Md. Rifat; Kabir, Samia; Methun, Md. Injamul Haq; Nayan, Md. Iqbal Hossain; Talukder, Ashis

doi:10.34172/ijtmgh.2021.14

People’s Concerns With the Prediction of COVID-19 in Bangladesh: Application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Md. Ismail Hossain ¹

Ahmed Abdus Saleh Saleheen ¹

Iqramul Haq ²

Maliha Afroj Zinnia ³

Md. Rifat Hasan ¹

Samia Kabir ¹

Md. Injamul Haq Methun ⁴

Md. Iqbal Hossain Nayan ⁵

Ashis Talukder ⁶

¹ Department of Statistics, Jagannath University, Dhaka-1100, Bangladesh

² Department of Agricultural Statistics, Sher-e-Bangla Agricultural University, Dhaka-1207, Bangladesh

³ Department of Pharmacy, East West University, Dhaka-1212, Bangladesh

⁴ Statistics Discipline, Tejgaon College, Dhaka-1215, Bangladesh

⁵ Research & Development Department, Orion Pharma Ltd, Bangladesh

⁶ Statistics Discipline, Khulna University, Khulna 9208, Bangladesh

10.34172/ijtmgh.2021.14

Abstract

Introduction: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a public health concern, and behavioral adjustments will minimize its spread worldwide by 80%. The main purpose of this research was to examine the factors associated with concerns about COVID-19 and the future direction of the COVID-19 scenario of Bangladesh.
Methods: The binary logistic regression model was performed to assess the impact of COVID-19 concern in Bangladesh. Based on data obtained through online surveys in November 2020 and to predict the next 40 days daily confirmed and deaths of COVID-19 in Bangladesh by applying the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model.
Results: The study enrolled 400 respondents, with 253 (63.2%) were male, and 147 (36.8%) were female. The mean age of respondents was 25.13 ± 5.74 years old. Almost 70% of them were found to be concerned about the COVID-19 pandemic. The result showed that respondents’ education level, knowledge regarding COVID-19 transmits, households with aged people, seasonal flu and HD/respiratory problems, and materials used while sneezing/coughing significantly influenced COVID-19 concerns. The analysis predicted that confirmed cases would gradually decrease for the ARIMA model while death cases will be constant for the next 40 days in Bangladesh.
Conclusion: The current study suggested that knowledge about COVID-19 spread and education played a vital role in the decline of COVID-19 concerned. A particular program should focus on creating an awareness of the disadvantages of concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic by augmenting knowledge about COVID-19 spread, enhancing Education in Bangladesh.

Keywords

COVID-19

MERS-CoV

SARS

Quarantine

Education

Health